The pandemic, along with the resultant stock market crash and other impacts, has led to increased discussion of a recession in the United States.The economy contracted 4.8 percent from January through March 2020, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent in April. The total healthcare costs of treating the epidemic could be anywhere from $34 billion to $251 billion according to analysis presented by The New York Times.
On May 8, 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 20.5 million nonfarm jobs were lost and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent in April. This followed reports of weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance that increased from a typical level of around 200,000 per week through early March, to 3.3 million the week of March 21, a peak of 6.9 million (March 28), and declines each week thereafter to 3.0 million the week of May 9th. A total of 36.5 million filed for unemployment insurance from March 21st to May 9th. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that costs for unemployment insurance claims were $49 billion in April 2020, versus $3 billion in April 2019. An estimated $27 billion of the increase was due to the $600/week increase in unemployment benefits due to the CARES Act. The Urban Institute estimated that about 25 million people would lose their employer-provided health insurance if the unemployment rate rises to 20%. Of these, 12 million would obtain Medicaid coverage, 6 million would find coverage privately, and 7 million would become uninsured.
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